The word "overconfident" seems overloaded. Here are some things I think that people sometimes mean when they say someone is overconfident: 1. They gave a binary probability that is too far from 50% (I believe this is the original one) 2. They overestimated a binary probability (e.g.

I made a spreadsheet for forecasting the 10th/50th/90th percentile for how you think GPT-4.5 will do on various benchmarks (given 6 months after the release to allow for actually being applied to the benchmark, and post-training enhancements). Copy it here to register your forecasts. If you’d

All views are my own rather than those of any organizations/groups that I’m affiliated with. Trying to share my current views relatively bluntly. Note that I am often cynical about things I’m involved in. Thanks to Adam Binks for feedback. Crossposted to EA Forum comment (comment is

(cross-posting from Alignment Forum, co-authored with Charlie Griffin) Disclaimer: While some participants and organizers of this exercise work in industry, none of the six scenarios presented here were written by industry employees, no proprietary info was used to inform these scenarios, and they represent the views of their individual authors

I just co-authored a post on AI Strategy Nearcasting: "trying to answer key strategic questions about transformative AI, under the assumption that key events will happen in a world that is otherwise relatively similar to today's". In particular, we wrote up our thoughts on how we

I've written a review of Joe Carlsmith's report Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk? I highly recommend the report and previous reviews for those interested in getting a better understanding of considerations around AI x-risk. I'll excerpt a few portions below. Thinking about reaching

Introduction In my review of What We Owe The Future (WWOTF), I wrote: Finally, I’ve updated some based on my experience with Samotsvety forecasters when discussing AI risk… When we discussed the report on power-seeking AI, I expected tons of skepticism but in fact almost all forecasters seemed to

Overview What We Owe The Future (WWOTF) by Will MacAskill has recently been released with much fanfare. While I strongly agree that future people matter morally and we should act based on this, I think the book isn’t clear enough about MacAskill’s views on longtermist priorities, and to

Summarized/re-worded from a discussion I had with John Wentworth. John notes that everything he said was off-the-cuff, and he doesn’t always endorse such things on reflection. Eli: I have a question about your post on Godzilla Strategies. For background, I disagree with it; I’m most optimistic about

Introduction Several recent popular posts (here, here, and here) have made the case that existential risks (x-risks) should be introduced without appealing to longtermism or the idea that future people have moral value. They tend to argue or imply that x-risks would still be justified as a priority without caring

I’ve been interested in AI risk for a while and my confidence in its seriousness has increased over time, but I’ve generally harbored some hesitation about believing some combination of short-ish AI timelines[1] and high risk levels[2]. In this post I’ll introspect on what comes

Overview I’ve been forecasting with some level of activity for over 2 years now, so I’m overdue for a retrospective.[1] I discuss: 1. My overall track record on each platform: My track record is generally strong, though my tails on continuous questions are systematically not fat enough.

tl;dr In the last 6 months I started a forecasting org, got fairly depressed and decided it was best to step down indefinitely, and am now figuring out what to do next. I note some lessons I’m taking away and my future plans. The High In December of

This article [https://usatodayhss.com/2018/duke-montverde-rj-barrett-living-out-matrix-moment] describes a "Matrix Moment" as part of the development of NBA players (see also this podcast [https://player.fm/series/brian-windhorst-the-hoop-collective/matrix-moments]): > It’s special to watch a player when they come to the realization that they’re unstoppable. And

Summary 1. I have an intuition that crowd forecasting could be a useful tool for important decisions like cause prioritization and AI strategy. 2. I’m not aware of many example success stories of crowd forecasts impacting important decisions, so I define a simple framework for how crowd forecasts could

Context The Arising Intelligence tournament is being run on Hypermind [https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/nav/navigator.html?view=challenges], consisting of "questions about progress toward general artificial intelligence". There are versions of each question resolving in each year from 2022 to 2025. There are $30,000

A revised writeup is now available here [https://www.foxy-scout.com/bottlenecks/]. I wrote a draft outline on bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting that I decided to share in its current form rather than clean up into a post. Link [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Sp1XoGhTmsGSWvx69Bg0A3EX4KZ6vtC9IpgPiN64xr4/edit] Summary:

Originally published 2019/08/03 on an old version of my blog Imagine you’re on a walk and notice a child drowning in a shallow pond. You could rush in and save the child, but it would require ruining your $3,900 suit. Most would agree it would be